The Complexities of Physician Supply and Demand: Projections From 2021 to 2036

The bottom line

Authoritative projections put the US physician shortfall at up to 86,000 by 2036, propelled by a 34% growth in the 65-plus population that disproportionately consumes surgical and anesthesia services. Leaders should build long-range staffing plans on structural scarcity, not reversion to pre-pandemic norms. All such projections embed assumptions about utilization and training output that can shift materially.

What the source found

AAMC workforce projections report forecasting total physician shortfall of 13,500–86,000 by 2036; surgical specialties (which anesthesiology staffs alongside) facing shortfall of 10,100–19,900; population aged 65+ projected to grow 34.1% by 2036 driving demand increase.

Limitations and applicability

Projection modeling with inherent uncertainty; scenarios depend on assumptions about utilization, physician productivity, and training output; anesthesiology not always broken out separately.

Population and setting

U.S. physician workforce by specialty (projected)

Used in FairShare guides

• The Anesthesiologist Shortage Isn't Coming — It's Here

About this evidence

Research question / practical issue

How does this source inform Retention and the Anesthesia Workforce for the population it studied?

Study design, evidence tier, and source class

Workforce Projection Report · primary source · evidence tier 1

Source type: Workforce Projection Report · primary · Evidence tier 1

Topics: Retention and the Anesthesia Workforce

Audience: Department Leaders, Anesthesiologists, CRNAs