The Anesthesiologist Shortage Isn't Coming — It's Here
By FairShare Team · 3 min read
Published by FairShare: · 3 min read
Topic: Retention and the Anesthesia Workforce
Audience: anesthesiologist, leader
Type: study-brief
The Association of American Medical Colleges updates its physician workforce projections regularly, and the most recent version — The Complexities of Physician Supply and Demand: Projections From 2021 to 2036 — projects a total physician shortfall of between 13,500 and 86,000 by 2036, with surgical specialties (the group anesthesiology is generally counted alongside for staffing purposes) facing a shortfall of 10,100 to 19,900.
Anesthesia-specific projections are, if anything, starker. A 2025 white paper from Medicus Healthcare Solutions puts the anesthesiologist-specific shortfall at 6,300 by 2036. Compounding the supply problem: more than 3,000 students applied to anesthesiology residency programs in the 2025 Match, and roughly 40% went unmatched — not because the specialty lacks interest, but because residency slots haven't scaled with demand.
Demand keeps climbing while the workforce ages
Meanwhile the demand side keeps climbing. The AAMC's own analysis points to population aging as the primary driver — the population aged 65 and older is projected to grow by 34.1% by 2036, and older adults require substantially more surgical and procedural care. On the supply side, the workforce is aging in step: separate reporting has found the share of practicing anesthesiologists over 55 sitting close to 59%.
None of this is solved by any single workplace intervention — this is a training-pipeline and policy-level problem as much as anything else. But it does reframe what department leaders can control locally: the anesthesiologists and CRNAs already on staff are a scarcer, more valuable resource than they were five years ago, and losing one to burnout-driven turnover now costs more — in both dollars and coverage risk — than it did before. Our companion piece on the real cost of losing an anesthesiologist runs that math.
Sources
- AAMC, The Complexities of Physician Supply and Demand: Projections From 2021 to 2036 (2024 update).
- Medicus Healthcare Solutions, The Anesthesia Provider Shortage (2025), as reported by Becker's ASC.
Sources
-
The Anesthesia Provider Shortage
(2025-05-21)
· Class: context
· Tier: 3
White-paper summary on anesthesia provider shortage; documents extent of shortage and workforce sustainability concerns.
Population: U.S. anesthesia providers
Limitations: Staffing agency white-paper; potential commercial bias; secondary synthesis.
-
The Complexities of Physician Supply and Demand: Projections From 2021 to 2036
(2024)
· Class: primary
· Tier: 1
AAMC workforce projections report forecasting total physician shortfall of 13,500–86,000 by 2036; surgical specialties (which anesthesiology staffs alongside) facing shortfall of 10,100–19,900; population aged 65+ projected to grow 34.1% by 2036 driving demand increase.
Population: U.S. physician workforce by specialty (projected)
Limitations: Projection modeling with inherent uncertainty; scenarios depend on assumptions about utilization, physician productivity, and training output; anesthesiology not always broken out separately.